No, this is not a symbol for some Latin number. The Wall Street mavens talk about this market timing device as if they knew how to use it to determine which way the stock market is going up or down. It is pretty obvious that brokers, analysts and financial planners have not learned the language.

What does it mean and can it be used to predict market moves? The VIX is actually a measure of volatility for those who buy and sell stock options think about the market. To make it simple you can find it displayed as a chart on the Internet at www.cboe.com. It measures the volatility of the market calculated by taking a weighted moving average of the implied volatility from eight puts and calls on the S&P 100 index. I hope I didnt lose you here. Stay with me a moment and Ill try to make it simple.

Every trader is looking for the Holy Grail indicator and recently the VIX seems to be it. Of course, like all indicators it will work until too many use it and then it will fail taking with it the spoils of the market their life savings.

It seems relatively simple to use and therefore attracts novices as well as professionals. When the indicator goes below 30 it would be a time to be short the general market such as the DOW, the S&P or the Nasdaq. When the numbers go above 45, which is supposed to show panic of investors, it is a time to buy. It is an inverse indicator. The lower the number the more complacency of the little investor SELL; the higher the number the greater panic BUY. Maybe it has become too simple because there is a sing/song that goes When VIX is high its time to buy, when VIX is low its time to go.

If it were only that simple. Every timing device has its shortcomings. With the VIX the numbers can remain in excessive high and low levels for prolonged periods and therefore cause the trader to experience losses before the desired market movement occurs. Like all other timing methods it is best when combined with other signals such as the 50-day moving average, P/E ratios and other devices.

Having been a trader for many years I can assure there is no Holy Grail indicator. The VIX is but one letter in the alphabet of market language. You cannot be successful with one syllable. You must take the time to learn the entire vocabulary.

Al Thomas

Albert W. Thomas has spent most of his life in the field of finance. In 1965 he founded an insurance holding company, Security Dynamics Investment Corporation, after having been an agent and General Agent for several life insurance companies. In 1970 he became cofounder and president of Real Life Estate, Inc., that marketed a unique real estate and life insurance package.

After he became interested in commodities he bought a seat for his personal trading on the Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now known as the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Later he became a full time trader and also acted as a commodity broker for a few select clients. By fellow floor traders Al is considered to be an excellent technical analyst much of which is outlined in his book IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT! It became a best seller on Amazon.

In 1981 he sold his membership on the Exchange and with his wife, Carolyn, lived full time aboard their 41' ketch, the Aumakua (which means guardian angel in Hawaiian). They sailed in Florida and the Bahamas for two years.

He founded World Trading Group in 1984 that grew to the seventh largest introducing commodity brokerage firm in the U.S. with 35 offices from coast to coast, Alaska and Canada. It was sold in 1992.

Al is a graduate of Northwestern University with a B.S. degree in Commerce and is a member of MENSA. He is now president of Williamsburg Investment Company that syndicates his weekly financial column since 1999 to more than 300 newspapers and writes a financial market letter called Over My Shoulder that is quoted in Barron?s and many other publications. A 3-month trial subscription is available on his web site. He is a regular guest on several financial radio talk shows.

His favorite pastime is fishing.

Mr. Thomas is available for speaking engagements. Please call 321-453-5300 for more information.